[Stock] Re: [心得] 為什麼我選擇指數化投資(三) by m180 (月薪180)

<div id="main-content" class="bbs-screen bbs-content"><div class="article-metaline"><span class="article-meta-tag">作者</span><span class="article-meta-value">m180 (月薪180)</span></div><div class="article-metaline-right"><span class="article-meta-tag">看板</span><span class="article-meta-value">Stock</span></div><div class="article-metaline"><span class="article-meta-tag">標題</span><span class="article-meta-value">Re: [心得] 為什麼我選擇指數化投資(三)</span></div><div class="article-metaline"><span class="article-meta-tag">時間</span><span class="article-meta-value">Wed Feb 27 08:36:00 2019</span></div>
<span class="f2">※ 引述《x111222333 (試驗者)》之銘言：
</span><span class="f6">: 原文恕刪
</span>這系列文受益匪淺 個人認為可以多多討論
大致上股市的部分多能理解
但債券較不能接受
我的原因是
0.匯率匯率匯率！！！我們是台灣人用的是台幣！你要買這些東西就是要用美元！
書上寫的是很好 但指數投資的好標地是在老外 你要用美元去買！！
巴菲特約翰伯格等大師也都說了 不要買外國人的股票
買美國就好 主因之一是日常生活用的是美元
可是在場的兄弟 我們用的是台幣！！
註：國內雖有類似追蹤美股美債的指數產品 費用績效成交量完全不值得考慮

1. 養兵千日 用在一時 是否值得？
綠角以及其他書上都有舉幾個代表性的年代來證實配置債券的好處
在某些時期 債券的確起了很大的降低股市虧損的作用
但是實務上 你查查債券的殖利率 綠角是用3-7年的美債來做 並非公司債
殖利率低到只有1%多 正常局勢時。 也許股市崩盤時美債可高達15%
我不禁想問 1%多的美債要去擺嗎？考慮匯率稍微一波動可能還倒賠
即便匯率不動 你換為台幣肯定匯損
天下無事的平日若買個美國保單3.5%或美國公司債5%
假設十年給你遇到一次慘烈崩盤 終於讓你的美公債發揮作用
但1%美國債 這十年等於少賺了25%~40% 也差不多抵銷了？
（當然多久遇到股災沒人知道 也要看你投入時的運氣）

2. 同0, 我們要買這些相當好的先鋒股債etf都是美元計價 跟美國人買受老美管
除了前述匯率問題 還有老美稅率法令的問題，
老美遺產稅課徵40% 即便是複委託未來亦未必能避開這個問題：
<a href="http://greenhornfinancefootnote.blogspot.com/2016/08/estate-tax-evasion-by-sub-brokerage.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">http://greenhornfinancefootnote.blogspot.com/2016/08/estate-tax-evasion-by-sub-brokerage.html</a>
大家千萬不要天真地覺得意外來臨時會有充分的時間去處理 而能避開40%遺產稅
既然要考慮這些策略 就必須以最壞狀況的想 別以為意外不會發生在你身上
我的意思是：
指數投資海外股債etf的確是非常的好，遺憾的是台灣並沒有良好健全的投資環境
導致想投入的人必須面臨用這些非正規的做法
通常被動投資適用於資金有一點規模的人 這類人通常已不想大富大貴只想求個心安
把時間花在良好生活品質上，
但為了投入這一塊還必須因應各種狀況想出種種策略以因應？ 這不是矛盾了嗎

以上 只要有一天台灣也出了一家類似先鋒的公司 這些顧慮應可迎刃而解
但我想是遙遙無期....

理念和東西是非常好 可我們是台灣人！
有時想到這些東西之後真的就不如買0050算了 但0050沒有債券的部位

個人淺見 謝謝！！


<span class="f6">: 有兩個部份跟綠角不同
</span><span class="f6">: 1.投資初期，不建議配置債劵
</span><span class="f6">: 1.選擇費用最低的被動型指數化基金
</span><span class="f6">: 2.選擇大範圍，而非單一領域的基金
</span><span class="f6">: 但也有幾個操作法，似乎並無定論：
</span><span class="f6">: 1.投資的股債的配置比
</span><span class="f6">: 看到股票配置的比例是(110 or 100-年齡)%
</span>這其實沒有啥好問的 跟每個人經濟狀況家庭背景職業 個性 尤其是個性影響風險承受
比爾蓋茲就算一百歲 他需要債券的配置嗎
我覺得不用太執著這個公式 自己抓一下不難
<span class="f6">: 記得綠角的說法是，配置一定比例的債劵，可以減低股市大跌時的衝擊
</span><span class="f6">: 另外再平衡時，也可能可以創造更多的報酬率
</span><span class="f6">: 但看了young23的文，我也隱約覺得初期不配置債劵，似乎也很有道理
</span><span class="f6">: 因為股票的平均報酬率，是比債劵多滿多的
</span><span class="f6">: 而且你投入的資金，如果是閒錢，理論上也不必畏懼崩盤時的帳面損失
</span><span class="f6">: 但看到本系列的第一篇回文
</span><span class="f6">: <a href="/bbs/Stock/M.1551069762.A.760.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">#1SSt92TW</a>
</span><span class="f6">: 裡面又有提到，配置一定比例的債劵，在平衡時可能可以創造比100%股票更多的報酬...
</span>
--
<span class="f2">※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 111.251.27.51
</span><span class="f2">※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1551227762.A.001.html
</span><span class="f2">※ 編輯: m180 (111.251.27.51), 02/27/2019 08:40:20
</span><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">badfood</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 繼承海外資產沒有那麼簡單 繳遺產稅也許是最簡單的一環</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 08:42
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">badfood</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 繼承手續不完備 那是一塊錢都拿不回來</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 08:42
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">badfood</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 當然如你所說 很多人都認為意外不會發生在自己身上</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 08:43
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">paimin</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 富邦 國泰 元大有美債ETF在證交所掛牌雖然追蹤績效略差</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 08:48
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">cateran</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 老美遺產稅40% 可是免稅額有五百多萬美金你知道嗎</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 08:49
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">x111222333</span><span class="f3 push-content">: p大講的那些，內扣費用是不是滿高的？</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 08:49
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 非美國人的免稅額只有六萬美元！</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 08:50
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">sgxm3</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 台灣的美債etf不用扣股息30%。雖然費用高追蹤績效待觀察，</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 08:57
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">sgxm3</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 但好壞一來一往所以也不是完全不可取。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 08:57
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ray2501</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 台灣應該很難出一家類似先鋒的，那是天時地利人和外加</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 08:58
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ray2501</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 約翰伯格個性才會在美國出來的</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 08:58
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 台灣的美國ＥＴＦ會把匯損反映在淨值 並非表面上新台幣計價</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 08:59
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">qize1428</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 不是有高收益債嗎</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 09:01
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">rahim</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 帳號密碼寫一寫拿給家人不就解決？出意外掛了就直接賣掉就</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 09:12
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">rahim</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 好，複委託公司跟營業員不會知道你死了沒</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 09:12
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">rahim</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 複委託不像海外券商，錢匯回來時銀行還會打電話跟你確認</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 09:13
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ashidaka</span><span class="f3 push-content">: ETF一般都在本國的次級市場交易,那有什麼匯損?</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 09:21
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">bitlife</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 觀點問題,淨值內含匯損,就看你怎麼看待</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 09:22
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">kuarcis</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 還有實現匯損的時間點 買國內的配息ETF 匯損會在配息的</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 09:57
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">kuarcis</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 時候實現一部分 但是直接買國外的 你可以等到匯率好點再</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 09:57
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">kuarcis</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 實現 或是直接原幣再投資 不用換回台幣</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 09:57
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 台灣券商追蹤的美國ETF最好是不要買，追蹤能力爛到有剩</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:16
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 光是追蹤的損失就勘比基金的內扣費用了</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:16
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">Gunsroses</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 考慮緊急用錢的情況 會有股市崩盤的疑慮卻不會有匯差</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:18
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">Gunsroses</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 匯損的疑慮 就是讓我覺得很矛盾的一點</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:18
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 巴菲特說不要買國外的股票是因為匯率，原PO可以提出佐證</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:19
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 嗎?謝謝</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:19
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: <a href="https://imgur.com/a/nRRwXnj" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://imgur.com/a/nRRwXnj</a> 這一頁約翰伯格最新再版的書</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:36
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 巴菲特也有說過類似的話 但我臨時找不到 只是憑記憶</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:36
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ashidaka</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 如果把匯率的變動看得這麼重,那確實是只能把所有的資產</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:37
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ashidaka</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 全部投放在本國的投資商品了</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:37
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 上面那一頁是約翰伯格投資常識 今年十週年再版</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:38
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ashidaka</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 然後像金控壽險還有主要進出口業務的公司也不太能買,畢</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:39
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ashidaka</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 竟它們資產有一大部分是外幣計價,這也有匯損疑慮</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:39
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 這其實相當直覺的觀念 也未必是誰說的就比較有力</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:39
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 感謝提供，但如果這樣的講法成立，就真的只能全部買台灣</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:40
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 的股票或ETF了</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:40
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 他上面有一段是說對於多數投資人而言啦</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:41
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 約翰伯格掛了喔 這一本提到他對未來十年美股不樂觀 僅估4%</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:43
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 但是邏輯上來說，呼籲美國人不要買外國股票，跟建議外國</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:43
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 人不要買美國股票不能畫上等號。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:43
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 就讓時間印證吧... 我是基於做紀念才買來看新版 否則算舊書</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:44
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 台灣和美國理論上都是匯率相對穩定的國家，透過定期定額</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:45
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 的或者綠角推薦的方式換匯，相信都可以很大程度避免匯率</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:45
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 的損失</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:45
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 是沒錯 畢竟美國金融健全 但也的確外匯是個考量因素</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:46
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">rahim</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 巴菲特可以只買本國股票，是因為他很幸運是美國人</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:48
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 我要表達的只是大家再說指數投資海外etf時 別忘了自己身份</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:49
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 如果我是老外當然也二話不說投入 可就不是 被迫面臨諸多難關</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:50
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 匯率這個部分，綠角的部落格文章都有很清楚的說明，當然</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:50
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 如果不希望承擔這個風險的人，那就買本國股票或本國etf即</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:50
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 可</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:50
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 但如果是我本人的立場，因為可控的匯率風險而放棄投資美</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:51
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 國指數型ETF，可能承受更大的損失</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:51
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 其實我還是會買 至少買到六萬美元啦 畢竟這東西太好</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:52
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 主要是投資環境工具問題 最壞狀況可能一毛都拿不回來</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:53
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 即便複委託也有謠言說以後會被逞罰性扣30% 忘了有次新聞看到</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:54
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">rahim</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 盡信書不如無書，沒有什麼一定是對的，但自己要有思考能力</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:55
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 還有配息-30%是確定的 4%殖利率剩2.8%不比0050好</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:55
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 我並不是說只考慮那個因素 但這的確是影響因子要納入考慮</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 10:56
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 某ａ 國內金控壽險不就是因為忽略匯率風險爆了嗎？</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:03
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">rahim</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 壽險爆是因爲它要承擔避險成本，加上它資金成本不低(比起</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:05
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">rahim</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 銀行)</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:05
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">rahim</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 有個機構資產負債的組成是絕大多數美元資產+100%新台幣負</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:08
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">rahim</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 債，然後它又不用做避險，新台幣負債成本不到1%，每年穩穩</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:08
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">rahim</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 賺1800億</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:08
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ashidaka</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 所以用避免匯率變動的觀點,這些壽險金控跟進出口貿易的</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:15
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ashidaka</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 產業也不能碰啊,不然不是也會有匯損的問題,台灣的ETF也</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:17
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ashidaka</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 很多這種有匯損疑慮的成份股,我看只剩單純內需產業像保</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:17
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 養兵千日 用在一時 是否值得？ 大大對於美債1%是否值得配置?</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:17
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ashidaka</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 全或是房地產這類才完全吻合吧</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:18
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">rahim</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 美債1%幹嘛買？你去美元定存都2.8-3%了</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:20
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ashidaka</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 當你把匯率變動看得比資產配置還重要的話,中期美債確實</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:21
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ashidaka</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 不是你的選項</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:22
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">willism</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 1.不要買美國以外的股票，原因是全球市場和美股高度相關</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:40
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">willism</span><span class="f3 push-content">: ，報酬率卻更差，所以買美股。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:40
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">willism</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 2.不買公司債(投資等級債券)原因是，“印象中”是和美股</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:42
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">willism</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 高度相關，報酬率卻不如，不如買美股。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:42
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">willism</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 3.如果要配債券，綠角會配短期美債可能原因是，債券是避</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:46
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">willism</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 險，指標性且夠穩才有效果，公司債沒這作用;而長年期美</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:46
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">willism</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 債受利率升降衝擊過大，所以配短期美債</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:46
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">willism</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 補充，第二項我沒自身跑回測，看別人文章寫的，有興趣自</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:47
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">willism</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 己回測</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:47
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">willism</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 最後，匯率變動確實是風險，但除非美國瞬間崩盤暴跌的發</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:50
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">willism</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 生率夠高，否則這不該是全投資國內市場的理由</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:50
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">SweetLee</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 美國人只需要美元部位 因為他們民生必需品和奢侈品都是</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 11:59
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">SweetLee</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 美員相關計價的 而台灣人需要同時有台幣和美元部位 因為</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:00
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">willism</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 補充一點，多數人投資的選擇，會以回測(包括我自己)當方</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:00
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">willism</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 向，不知你做過了沒有？ 這裡講的回測，不是回測報酬率</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:00
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">willism</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 而是標的相關性</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:00
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">SweetLee</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 台灣人民生必需品是台幣相關 而奢侈品是美元相關為多</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:00
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">SweetLee</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 事實上 我就是以我的生活消費比例在決定各投資比例的</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:02
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">willism</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 要知道美股(或美元)，和台股(新台幣)相關係數有多高，才</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:07
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">willism</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 會知道分散配置到底有無效果，我個人是早就有答案了</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:07
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">SweetLee</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 我回應本文第一行 我個人是建議不需要多多討論 有沒有想</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:11
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">SweetLee</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 過每種方法越多人使用的話 報酬率就會越差 而指數投資的</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:12
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">SweetLee</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 可容納的量可能比很多人認為的還要低</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:12
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">SweetLee</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 嗯 也對 我應該開始推全投資VTI 那邊的市場胃納量比較大</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:16
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 樓上的說法沒有根據喔</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:27
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 如果確定全球市場未來會輸美股當然買美股就好了，問題是</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:30
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 有誰能確定這點？</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:30
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 美國10年報酬輸全球市場也不是多久以前的事。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:31
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">SweetLee</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 樓上 因為股板最多人的信仰就是強者恆強大者恆大順是操</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:40
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">SweetLee</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 做 贏要衝輸要縮</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:41
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 回到10年前去看上一個10年就是美股輸全球啊。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:41
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">SweetLee</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 不過未來的事會怎樣真的很難討論</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:41
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 會建議全買美股的理由當然不是能確定VTI績效未來一定贏VT</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:43
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: ,能確定的話貸款開滿全押了</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:43
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 然後，現在哪來的1%多美債啊…數據大誤吧。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:47
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 中期至少有2.5%左右。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:50
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 建議買V T I代替買VT的理由之後會專文敘述，順著多拉王</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:51
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 的邏輯，那不建議以VTI取代VT是因為預期下一個10年因為回</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:51
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 歸平均值的慣性，配置全世界的績效一定會比配置全美來得</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:51
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">young23</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 好。是這樣的嗎？當然不是啊。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 12:51
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 因為不一定，所以平均分散啊。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:16
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 這不就是被動投資的基金想法嗎？</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:16
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 美債３－７ETF 例如IEI 殖利率約落在 1.x~2%</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:16
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 是美債ｅｔｆ 並不是固定利率的純美債</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:17
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: iei 2月25日的殖利率是2.51%。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:18
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 扣費用0.15%也有2.36%。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:19
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 又不是你買了就固定3~7年都2.5</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:19
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">reon</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 推VTI 要買美國以外市場 乾脆直接買台股</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:19
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">reon</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 其他都是韭菜市場</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:19
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 綠角再計算iei時也只是用1.x那段時間去回測</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:20
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 你現在買費用前長期報酬就是2.51%啊。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:20
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 有一年iei高達15% 我的意思是有必要為了這個風險長期配置</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:21
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 你都拿現在的3.5%美金保單來比了，怎麼能用過去的公債數字</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:21
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">reon</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 美股總量比重佔全球股市一半，美國不好全球不會好。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:22
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 計債券平均報酬就拿到期殖利率就好了，回測一點都不準。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:22
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 現在買來放的基本假設是以這個標的殖利率1.x~2%來算</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:23
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 過去報酬愈好，未來報酬反而可能愈差。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:23
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 美股以外還不是佔全球一半？</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:23
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">reon</span><span class="f3 push-content">: iei殖利率基本上會比基準利率高啦..</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:24
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 跟你說現在標的的殖利率就是2.51%？你1-2%是哪來的？</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:24
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: etf的頁面每天都會更新殖利率啊。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:24
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 美元保單固定未來10年都是3.5 iei沒固定只能以過往整體表現</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:24
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">reon</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 同意ffaarr講的，不過其他國家有人口結構問題，美國人口結構</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:25
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">reon</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 再過30年都還是很優。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:25
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 我覺得你連債券報酬的基本都不理解，綠角明明相關文章啊</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:25
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 我沒有買過美債etf 難道etf有保證買了給固定2.51?</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:26
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 買十年的保單就跟買十年的公司債券是同個意思。中間實際上</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:26
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 的價值一樣會跌，只是你看不到市價而已。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:26
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 抱歉還真的不懂美債etf, 我一直以為只有純美債是看到期殖利</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:26
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 而etf是浮動的</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:26
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 沒有保證，但長期平均就是以買時的殖利率來算，至於原因</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:26
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 有很多人算過了就是這樣。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:27
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 喔 了解 你的意思是指今天買之前的長期總表現是2.5</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:29
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 簡單說你10年內利率漲了，價格會降但買進的新債利息會變多</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:29
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 如果利率跌了，價格會漲，但買的新債利息會少，加加減減最</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:29
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">reon</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 債券在沒有違約的情況下，基本上你買的當下殖利率，放到存</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:30
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">reon</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 續期滿就是那個報酬率，中間當然會有價格波動，但是你之中沒</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:30
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">reon</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 有買賣報酬基本上是不會變的。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:30
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 但是債券和etf不同吧 etf可能大漲賺15% 債券出手就固定了</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:30
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 後10年的總平均報酬就非常接近買入時的殖利率。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:30
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 債券價格也是會變的啊</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:30
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: etf漲15%就代表公債價格也漲了差不多15%</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:31
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 但長期來說，你今年漲15%殖利率就降，接下來預期報酬就降</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:32
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 建議有興趣真了解把這系列看一下 <a href="https://goo.gl/T4N3UK" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://goo.gl/T4N3UK</a></span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:34
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: ok 謝謝</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:34
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 裡面的例子是一支債券配息再投資，etf就想成很多支配息或</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:36
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 到期之後再投資，意思是類似的。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:36
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">jyhchyunlu</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 請問如果時間拉長到20年，美股報酬率一樣輸給全球嗎</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:48
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">jyhchyunlu</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 還有請問美股輸全球是輸了多少？贏的時候又是贏多少?</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:49
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">jyhchyunlu</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 會說買VTI就行的人，應該是看到一些資料發現美股長期</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:51
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">jyhchyunlu</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 報酬率持續贏過別的市場，波動率也比別的市場小</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:52
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">jyhchyunlu</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 就連在美國發生的金融風暴，台股跌的幅度還比美股多</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:53
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">jyhchyunlu</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 其它新興市場波動率更是大的嚇人</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:54
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">jyhchyunlu</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 加入其它市場只是拖累報酬率，當然不能保證以後皆是</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:55
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">jyhchyunlu</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 如此，所以只能說投資人相不相信美國能繼續壯大</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 14:56
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 如果是相信長期美國會繼續贏，那當然壓美國沒錯。但有幾個</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 15:00
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 人是2006 2007就這樣主張的？全押美國？</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 15:00
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 還是近十年看美股好才這樣主張的？</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 15:01
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 在2006 2007的時候不要說全押美國了，在基金板說要買美國</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 15:02
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 基金還會被取笑。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 15:02
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 那個時候就算不買新興市場原物料，也是買歐洲日本小型股</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 15:14
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 那個熱潮就跟現在很多人說要全押美股差不多。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 15:14
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">jyhchyunlu</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 其實就是因為有十幾年前的那次經驗，我才覺得全壓美</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 15:38
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">jyhchyunlu</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 股才是比較好的做法，我反而不是受到近十年的影響</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 15:39
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">jyhchyunlu</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 新興市場波動率太大，光看2017年報酬率就知道了</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 15:41
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">jyhchyunlu</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 整年40%的報酬率遠勝美國，但接下來的2018就崩得亂七</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 15:42
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">jyhchyunlu</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 八糟，反而美國沒什麼影響</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 15:42
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">jyhchyunlu</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 真要說長期投資，看一年太短，看十年還是有點短</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 15:43
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">jyhchyunlu</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 以歷史數據來看，美國確實是最好的選擇</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 15:43
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">jyhchyunlu</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 這就是每個人的抉擇了</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 15:44
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: etf的頁面每天都會更新殖利率--&gt;請問網址？我查的怎都固定2%</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 15:45
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: <a href="https://goo.gl/AQpi3b" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://goo.gl/AQpi3b</a> 目前更新到2/25日</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 17:45
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">SweetLee</span><span class="f3 push-content">: ffaarr大 有時候是信仰的問題 信仰的東西還是少討論</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 17:51
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">SweetLee</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 像宗教 政治 這種也是信仰的問題 討論到後來大多是生氣</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 18:03
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">SweetLee</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 吵架而已</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 18:03
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">bouzi502</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 看後照鏡投資真簡單，不懂為什麼覺得美股報酬一定好</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 18:08
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">bouzi502</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 而且經濟好跟股市報酬也未必相關吧? 記得綠角有專文</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 18:08
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 請問美債若改用美元保單取代 多1.3% 是否更好?或是不同觀念?</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 20:15
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 2.5%若只為了低風險資產配置 美元保單似乎也夠穩了</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 20:16
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 或者根本是不同的概念？？ 抱歉還是想不太清楚</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 20:17
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 美元保單最大缺點是中途解約會虧。然後保單是保險公司出的</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 22:16
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 所以比較適當的是去跟類似信用評等的美金公司債比較。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 22:17
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 美國公債是美國政府出的，當然信用風險會好過保險公司</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 22:18
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">built</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 全球配置搭配再平衡理論上更有機會接近效率前緣，當其他市</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 22:58
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">built</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 場表現不佳時反而更有機會賺到風險溢酬。反過來說當大家持</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 22:58
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">built</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 續看好美國導致的估值過高反而會壓低你的報酬率</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/27 22:58
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">jyhchyunlu</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 當然往後會怎樣，沒人敢完全保證，但指數投資本來就</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/28 00:24
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">jyhchyunlu</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 很看歷史數據，我相信會用指數投資的人，也是看到歷史</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/28 00:24
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">jyhchyunlu</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 統計出長期正報酬才會選擇指數投資，所以當人看到歷史</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/28 00:24
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">jyhchyunlu</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 資料就只能自行決定要怎麼去理解這些數據，而有部分</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/28 00:24
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">jyhchyunlu</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 的人相信美國會持續成長，就像以往一樣，如此而已</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/28 00:24
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">m180</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 不好意思 我是指2.5%美債etf 改成4.5%公司債 意義夠接近了嗎</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/28 00:25
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">jyhchyunlu</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 要說是信仰也可以啦，就像巴菲特也是信仰美國一樣XD</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/28 00:28
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 嗯！改用4.5%公司債也可以啊，不過如果是類似的3-7年的公</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/28 08:09
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 司債，目前如果要4.5%，幾乎都是bbb-的邊緣或是垃圾債了。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/28 08:10
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 這如果遇到股市大跌的時候也會一起跌。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/28 08:10
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 如果還是要4.5%信評好一些的就是要買長天期的承受利率風險</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/28 08:11
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 這部分就是一分報酬一分風險。選擇適合你的就可以了。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/28 08:12
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 去年11月到12月股市跌的時候比較有便宜的公司債可撿。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/28 08:16
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">ffaarr</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 現在漲回不少殖利率就相對比較低了。</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 02/28 08:17
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="hl push-tag">推 </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">csjan</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 一般資產配置講到債券就是指美國公債，金融海嘯來時除了</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 03/03 12:45
</span></div><div class="push"><span class="f1 hl push-tag">→ </span><span class="f3 hl push-userid">csjan</span><span class="f3 push-content">: 公債會暴漲之外，其它的資產都是死一片</span><span class="push-ipdatetime"> 03/03 12:46
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